Embolden by his belief that “MAGA loves every thing I do,” President Trump has set his sights on Greenland and Colombia. An aggressive move on either would likely be taken a green light for Russia to fulfill Putin’s dream of reestablishing a Russian-led Eurasian empire including large parts of Central Asia, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and NATO members Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland and Poland.
After all, Putin’s popularity only grows with his invasions. His ratings rose to 84 percent during the second war in Chechnya and to 88 percent after he annexed Crimea. Putin has called the Soviet collapse “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.” The takeover of Venezuela has to evoke the “he-did-it-why-can’t-I” justification to invade NATO members that were formerly part of the USSR.
Trump’s aggression could also give Xi implied permission to bully its neighbors around the South China Sea and fulfill its historic claim to Taiwan. China has already violated the Hague International Court’s order declaring than Vietnam had the legal right to drill there. But it had to back off citing doubt that America would come to its aid . There’s no doubt that Trump won’t now.
Both countries have been trying to carve the world up into their own spheres of influence with each ruled by a single dictator. Trump would like nothing more than to join them. He’s knowingly diminishing America’s status as a superpower and watching as Putin and Xi supplant the US-dominated world order with one that will give them and Trump the power and leverage to write the rules and intimidate other countries.
His intensions, if you believe what his declaration says, that “American dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never be questioned again” portend more aggression outside U.S. borders. Moreover, Trump’s Security Strategy puts the first priority on the Western Hemisphere, which declares the Americas and their surrounding waters as Washington’s sphere of dominance.
There’s a better way to expand Washington’s sphere of dominance in Latin America. It’s by growing US trust, trade, influence and hegemony (dominance achieved through political and economic efforts) in the region.
Sadly, though, it’s not in Trump’s DNA. He’s much more comfortable with cruel force and pernicious power. But the opportunity is there for a new and rational President or for Republicans with integrity and the county’s best interests at heart.
Venezuela’s GDP has fallen by 75% in a decade. Oil production has collapsed. Public services can barely function. In seven out of 24 Venezuelan states the food insecurity rate is 99%, and only three states are lower than 90%. Around 82.4% of households live in poverty and around 50.5% live in extreme poverty.
So, the better solution is to employ a small Marshal Plan in Venezuela like the US did in Europe after World War II, which built economic and political stability. Given the Venezuelans’ jubilation over Maduro’s fall, the country is likely to welcome one there and cooperate.
After the devastation of Europe in World War II, the Marshall Plan generated a resurgence of European industrialization, agricultural production, brought extensive investment into the region, expanded traded, established financial stability and stimulated the U.S. economy by developing markets for American goods.
Similarly to Europe in 1948, Venezuela’s requirements for foreign food and other essential products far exceed its ability to pay for them. So the country needs significant assistance to prosper, and the US is in a position and has the opportunity to fulfill its needs … and also the needs of the greater region, which ranks as one of the most unequal regions in the world with the poorest 50 percent only holding 0.8 percent of its wealth.
A Marshal-type plan is also necessary to supplant China’s rapidly growing influence in Latin America and Russia’s military aid to Venezuela. It sent nuclear-capable bombers to Venezuela as a show of force in 2018. China ratified a “strategic partnership” with Venezuela last October to establish a platform for spreading its influence across Latin America. China also loaned more than $100 billion to the region over the last quarter-century.
But if US oil companies control and then export Venezuela’s oil revenues instead of redirecting them back into the country, no government will be able to restore even a modicum of prosperity to the country.
And a quick disengagement from Venezuela by the U.S. is likely to leave it fatally ungoverned, unstable, and losing people and capital.
Tragically for Venezuela and the world’s stability, Trump is no Darth Vaderwho, after a lifetime of evil, becomes an unselfish and well-meaning.
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