Europe is likely to face a Russian invasion of its NATO neighbors. Trump has threatened to cut intelligence sharing and weapons supplies for Ukraine if it doesn’t agree to Putin’s outrageous demands, which Zelensky said he won’t accept. They include:
- An “expectation” [emphasis added] butnot a promise that Russia won’t invade NATO members
- NATO will not expand its membership.
- Ukraine won’t join NATO
- European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland where they’ll be easy targets for the Russian military.
Russia has included its own benefits:
- Russia will be re-integrated into the global economy.
- Russia will be invited back into the G8.
- Crimea and Donbas will be recognized as Russian, including by the United States.
- Ukraine to hold elections in 100 days, likely enabling Putin to install a puppet government,
- The agreement’s implementation and enforcement will be Chaired by Trump.
- That western military aid to Kyiv be halted during a 30-day cease fire, making it open season on Ukraine.
- Putin will revisit a demand for NATO to halt the deployment of weapons in member states that joined after 1997, when NATO began expanding into former communist countries.
Trump’s accommodation of Putin is not surprising. It fits a pattern of favoring his idol Vladimir Putin over his own country, and over Zelensky
Consequently, Trump is on the verge of letting Putin prevail in Ukraine and giving him a green light to invade European NATO members to fulfill Putin’s dream of a Russian-led Eurasian empire. Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia is likely a first target because, just like Ukraine, they were parts of the Soviet Union and are home to around a million ethnic Russians.
As former US Secretaries of State and Defense, Condoleezza Rice and Robert Gates warned, “ If … Ukraine is defeated, Russia will almost certainly … attack NATO member countries.”
Germany, France and the UK assured Zalensky of their continued support if the U.S. abandons Ukraine, and said, “the Ukrainian armed forces must remain in a position to defend …. Ukraine effectively.” But their success becomes more doubtful should Trump carry out his threat.
Importantly, there’s more at stake than Ukraine. China is carefully following what Trump does with Ukraine as a guide to what it does with Taiwan. It’s likely that Trump will give Xi his best opportunity to invade.
It boils down to Trump’s pursuing a cosmetic peace to garner primary votes for his chosen candidates, endear himself to his Russian idol and, laughably, win the Nobel Peace prize. It has nothing to do with defending Ukraine, Europe or, for that matter, what’s best for America.
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