Trump warned that Iran’s “civilization will die” if it doesn’t take his deal, which includes opening the Strait of Hormuz and freezing Iran’s nuclear development. Iran rejected both conditions and accused Trump of violating their agreement. Israel is far from on board. The cease fire is disintegrating.

Oddly, Trump said Iran’s  proposal  is “workable” even though it requires passage through the Strait be coordinated with Iranian’s Military, which leaves Iran in control of its traffic. It also requires an acceptance of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, which Trump blithely claims, “will be … taken care ⁠⁠of.” 

Iran has already won. The Pentagon’s addiction to expensive sophisticated weapons that take long to produce has shifted the military advantage to Iran’s drones which take much less time to produce and at a fraction of the cost of America’s Tomahawk missiles. Their drones are capable of more precision at short and long ranges. Putin has helped Iran fight until it exhausts America’s military, which is already draining our supply of precision-guided munitions.

Iran, now in the driver’s seat, won’t agree to liberate the Strait or freeze its nuclear program. Although it’s unlikely that Trump will incinerate Iran, we should remember that General Milley had to prevent Trump from resorting to our nuclear arsenal during his first term. 

The other option is to declare victory and pull out, which leaves Iran in control of the Strait to charge tolls that rebuild its infrastructure and strengthen its economy and increase its treacheries. It’s clear who won and who lost. 

Voters must replace the Republican detritus with candidates who aren’t Trump’s slaves. 

Twitter (X): https://x.com/ChaosPolicy/status/2042622296997924868?s=20

The post WHAT THE HELL ARE REPUBLICANS WAITING FOR? first appeared on Inside The Political Chaos.

The disaster will have consequences that American voters and even Trump’s enslaved Republicans should finally realize that Trump is a bigger threat than an advantage to keeping their Congressional seats and join the Democrats in removing him – in other words, regime change at home.

The momentum is building. The war is backed by the lowest number of Americans ever at 41%. Reuters poll has it as low as 27%. Support will continue to deteriorate as Iran increases its retaliation.

Videos showing Iran’s drones bombing a high-rise building in Bahrain, a Dubai hotel, Dubai’s airport, a Bahrain radar facility, the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh, and Amazon data centers in the Emirates are plentiful and convincing that Iran’s threats are real and lasting. 

So is the economic damage to the U.S. and the world at large. Iran bombed critical oil-production facilities and the UAE had to shut down one of the world’s largest oil refineries. Shutting down the Strait of Hormuz reduced oil traffic by 75%, sending oil prices soaring globally and gas prices at the pump in every state.

Clearly, America’s military is far superior to Iran’s. But in this war, the U.S. lost that advantage to Iran’s drones which are much less expensive, more rapidly produced, more scalable at a fraction of the cost, and is capable of precision at short and long ranges. The Pentagon’s addiction to too-slowly producing sophisticated and expensive weaponry is a disadvantage. It’s unclear whether the 1000 Tomahawks ordered will be delivered on time. 

The Pentagon’s Switchblade drone was deployed in Ukraine with a range of less than 60 miles and costs around $120,000 each. By contrast, Iran’s drone has a range of 940–1,240 miles and cost around $35,000 each. Ukraine, copying Iran’s drone technology, brought Russia’s offensive to a halt.

The U.S. fired around 400 Tomahawk missiles to intercept Iranian drones –about 10% of U.S. drone inventory – at a cost of around $800 million, which could buy 23,000 Iranian drones. 

Sending troops to Iran is not the act of a sane man. Yet Trump’s ill-considered decision to bomb Iran has made a land invasion possible if not likely. 

A ground war in Iran will be near-impossible to win. First, the size of the ground force could exceed the scale of Vietnam. Rugged mountains make up half of Iran’s territory, and its urban centers are inland and protected by them and by uninhabitable deserts.  

Given Iran’s much larger population than Iraq’s, it would require as many as 1.6 million troops, equaling roughly three-quarters of the U.S. military, including combat forces America doesn’t have.

Deploying ground troops would provide Moscow and Beijing with an opportunity to weaken a rival superpower that is already overextended and domestically fractured. 

In the end, Trump’s goal of inspiring an uprising won’t be reached. American bombing has yet to create fissures in the regime. Nor has it inspired Iranians to demonstrate.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard remains firmly ‌in control of Iran’s strategy and battlefield. Demolishing their infrastructure only intensifies national solidarity. 

Trump’s ignored the lessons of America’s shameful failures in similar military attempts.

America’s experience in Vietnam bears a striking similarity to what Trump’s doing in Iran.  The U.S. dropped three times more tonnage of bombs in Vietnam than in World War II. U.S. air superiority destroyed the country’s crucial military facilities seemingly vital to the Vietnam’s military, and crushed any expectation that North Vietnam could fend off America’s imminent victory. Yet, just a few months later, Vietcong and Vietnamese forces attacked America’s presence in 100 cities and towns across South Vietnam and shattered the perception that an American victory was near. The Defense Department reported that the failed war cost the U.S. military $138.9-billion — over $1 trillion in today’s dollars. 

The U.S. war in Afghanistan was also a shameful failure, costing over $2.3 trillion and more than 20,000 American lives. And it set the stage for the Taliban’s rapid return to power.

The cost to the U.S. of the Iraq war totaled more than $3 trillion including direct government expenses and its impact on the U.S. economy. It also cost 4,492American lives.

Yet Trump declared “We won … It was over in the first hour.” Remember when he claimed Covid will disappear “within a couple of days and be near to zero,”  it would “disappear like a miracle.” But by the end of his first administration the U.S. accounted for just 4.2% of the world’s population but 30% of COVID  cases and 19% of COVID deaths.

The ugliest truth is that Trump’s attack on Iran has nothing to do with his goals of regime change or denuclearization. It’s that he’s sacrificing American lives, its economy, its honor and what’s left of its financial strength in order to distract from the Epstein scandal, for leverage to declare an emergency, as an excuse to deploy American troops on U.S. soil and to try to delay the midterm elections. 

Twitter (X): https://x.com/ChaosPolicy/status/2032828484389843408?s=20

The post REGIME CHANGE IN THE U.S. IS MORE LIKELY THAN IN IRAN. first appeared on Inside The Political Chaos.

Turns out it was a good idea for Trump, but a disaster for the country. 

The bombing of Iran quickly supplanted news about his sexually assaulting and hitting a minor, his corruption, Constitutional violations, more brutal ICE killings, and his election rigging. He can also claim emergency powers that he’ll try to use to deploy troops against protesters, postpone the midterm elections and give Republicans something to cheer about. 

This isn’t a political accusation. It’s a string of facts. Our president raged war against a country and fired the people who protect us from its retaliation.

The war is catastrophic for the United States. It’s already killed dozens of school children (who the Chairman of the American Conservative Union claims are better off dead), a thousand other civilians, will kill countless more, and cause major economic disruption throughout the world.

Trump claims he wants regime change. It didn’t work in Iraq and won’t in Iran. Like in Iran, we killed Iraq’s leader, it ended in decade-long brutal civil war and increased the region’s hatred towards America. 

The attack on Iran has also heightened the risk of a nuclear event either by intention or mistake. It could originate with Trump who wanted to nuke North Korea in the last month of his first administration. But General Mark Milley was there to stop him. There’s no Milley now, only a sycophant, alcoholic, unqualified Fox News co-host shockingly confirmed by Republican Senators. 

Trump is capable of hitting the button out of his anger at something unrelated to the issue at hand. He launched his tariffs his steel tariffs upon becoming “unglued” over  Hope Hicks’ testimony about Russia’s election interference and because his chief of staff dropped his son-in-law’s security clearance. There were no meaningful consultations, research or explanations, no alert of foreign trade partners or Congress. No one at the State, Treasury or Defense Departments were notified that tariffs were about to be announced — just like he started a war with Iran without the Constitutionally required Congressional approval. 

After becoming frustrated over his staff’s inability to reach a consensus on pardoning January 6 attackers, he threw up his hands and said, “”F–k it, Release ’em all,” and he released into the streets dozens of prisoners with prior convictions or pending charges for crimes of rape, sexual abuse of a minor, manslaughter, child pornography, drug trafficking. 

If Iran nears defeat and develops the capability, it’s final retaliation could be a nuclear bomb, perhaps not on America’s homeland, but within the region.  Most Western observers view Iran’s priorities as protecting their national interest, but they’re dictated more by religious doctrine. And many clerics preach that the deployment of nuclear weapons is permissible as a last resort.

An unintended nuclear launch has always been more likely than an intentional one. Of the 24 close calls where nuclear war was narrowly avoided, only the Cuban missile crisis involved one nuclear power threatening another. The other incidents resulted from faulty technology, misinterpreted data, human error, and a Soviet false alarm. A nuclear disaster could also result from Iran missiles and drones hitting U.S. and UK nuclear facilities in as many as ten of them. 

Iran still has lethal military power. It can fire hundreds of missiles at U.S. facilities in the Middle East and awaken its regional network of Hamas, Hezbollah, and Palestinian who share Iran’s animosity toward Israel the United States. Support from Tehran enabled the Houthis to fire missiles into Israel.

Intelligence assessments indicate that Iran has active sleeper cells throughout the United States.

As hostilities escalate, Trump’s war could plunge the global economy into an inflationary crisis led by the price of oil, especially if Iran cripples shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The consequences could be Trump’s worst. But will they be bad enough for his Republican toadies to find their consciences?

The post IRAN – A GREAT IDEA FOR TRUMP, A DISASTER FOR AMERICA first appeared on Inside The Political Chaos.

The fallout is likely to  upend the entire region, produce significant civilian casualties, cause major losses to the U.S. military and our allies in the region, result in major economic disruption in the United States and throughout the world, and leave the region destabilized for years to come.

The attack is also unlikely to lead to regime change. That and denuclearization of Iran are Trump’s stated missions. Regime change failed before – even backfired. Like Trump’s mission in Iran, the invasion of Iraq was aimed at regime change. We killed their leader and triggered a power vacuum, a brutal, decade-long civil war, regional instability a “dysfunctional kleptocracy,” and increased hatred towards America. 

Worse, the attack heightens the risk of a nuclear event, either by intention or mistake. A nuclear attack could originate right here at home with a President who wanted to nuke North Korea in the last month of his first administration. Fortunately, General Mark Milley was there to stop him. There’s no Milley now, only an alcoholic, unqualified Fox News co-host shocking confirmed by Republican Senators.

A nuclear disaster could also come in the form of Iran’s final retaliation. Most Western observers view Iran’s conduct through the lens of protecting their national interest, but its priorities are more consistent with the Mahdist religious doctrine,  which dictates that military might is central to its doctrines, and many jurists maintain that the deployment of nuclear weapons is permissibleas a last resort.

An unintended nuclear launch has always been more likely than an intentional one. Of the 24 close calls where nuclear war was narrowly avoided, only the Cuban missile crisis involved one nuclear power threatening another. The other incidents often resulted from faulty technology, misinterpreted data, human error during the Cold War and beyond, the 1983 Soviet false alarm, and the 1983 Nato military exercises. Eight of the closest calls stand out as among the most provocative of a  launch in the in the Middle East.

Iran still has lethal military power. Since last June, it has moved to rebuild its ballistic missile arsenal at what an Israeli military assessment described as “a rapid pace.” It can fire hundreds of missiles at U.S. bases and other facilities and awaken its regional network of partners and proxies, namely Hamas, Hezbollah, and Palestinian who share Iran’s animosity toward Israel the United States and oppose the Jewish state’s existence. Support from Tehran has also enabled Yemen’s rebel Houthis to fire missiles at Israel and attack its commercial ships in the Red Sea — actions the Houthis called a show of solidarity with Hamas. 

Iran has sent missiles and drones to attack U.S. and UK facilities in Qatar,the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, Jordan, Iraq and Cyprus, raising the danger of bombing nuclear power plants, reactors and fuel storage facilities in many of those countries.

Each of the countries under attack indicated high levels of preparedness to retaliate for the actions of Iran.

Iran has many ways it could respond to Trump’s attack, including cyber operations. Between 2012 and 2014, Iran targeted U.S. financial institutions, Saudi Aramco oil, and the Las Vegas Sands Corporation. It could also to attack critical infrastructure. 

Intelligence assessments indicate that Iran poses a threat in the U.S. through networks believed to be operating as sleeper cells.

If hostilities continue to escalate, Trump’s war could plunge the global economy into an inflationary crisis led by the price of oil. The conflict has disrupted shipping, leaving at least five tankers damaged and around 150 ships stranded around theStrait of Hormuz. Marine insurers are cancelling war risk coverage for vessels and oil shipping rates are set to surge further.

Trump’s reasons for the attack conflict with Marco Rubio’s and are contradicted by the facts, raising suspicions as to Trump’s motives. Heightening those suspicions, just days before Trump bombed Iran, his FBI Director, Kash Patel, fired the counterintelligence unit tasked with monitoring threats from Iran and its proxies, hobbling the United States ability to detect and subvert retaliatory actions against the United States, raising suspicions as to Trump’s motives.

Truth is who the hell knows why Trump bombed Iran? His denuclearization motive is contradicted by his claim that his attacks last summer obliterated Iran’s nuclear weapons capacity, a claim he repeated during his recent State of the Union address. Regime change is fruitless – witness Iraq. He also bizarrely accused Iran of interfering in 2020, 2024 elections to try to defeat him.

Was it to give the Republican party an edge in the midterms? Or to create a state of emergency in an attempt to delay them? Or to rev up his base? You decide. 

The post THE PRICE OF CONTEMPT FOR THE CONSTITUTION first appeared on Inside The Political Chaos.

Never mind that Trump’s attacks on Venezuela and capture of its leader violates the Constitution, international law, the War Powers Resolution and the Geneva Conventions. 

It’s worse than that. The United States is now ruled by a President who is an unhinged, delusional renegade who has run amuck against the country he was elected to lead. 

His delusions are many. His unshakable belief that his lies are realities is most evident in his lies at the Supreme Court.  So, is Trump’s claim that Venezuela is a significant trafficker of drugs into the United States a lie or a delusion. In light of the facts, I vote for delusion. 

More than 90% of all seized fentanyl, 97% of all seized cocaine, heroin, and methamphetamine came in through legal entry points. Less common methods include tunnels, drones, and the international mail system. None of the DEA reports include Caribbean boats and don’t even list the entire sea as a significant source of drugs.

Fentanyl is overwhelmingly produced in Mexico. 84% of cocaine seized in the US came from Columbia, the world’s largest producer. Today almost none of the drugs smuggled into the United States enter via the Caribbean. 

Yet, Trump has deployed the largest military buildup since the Cuban missile crisis in Venezuelan waters and forcefully captured its leader. Certainly, Venezuela pittance of drug activity, if any, doesn’t come close to justifying Trump’s military aggression … unless of course he believes that Venezuela is a major drug trafficker into the United States.

Trump also checks all the boxes that mental health professionals use to diagnose a sociopath, including that they act without considering the consequences. Let’s take a look at what they’re likely to be.

Venezuela and other Latin American countries will seek more military support from Russia and China. Russia already provides Venezuela with military cooperation and is Venezuela’s strongest geopolitical backer. China, Venezuela’s largest importer of oil, already provides it with economic support.

Both Russia and China will leverage their relationships with Venezuela and other concerned countries in South America against U.S. interests. 

Tragically the Congressional Republicans are complicit in his treachery and willing to let him shred America’s governing blueprint to avoid losing their seats to a Trump-backed challenger. They have knowingly enabled his treachery by confirming the most dangerous and unqualified cabinet in America’s history and by tolerating his too-many-to count treacheries. 

The solution is to replace them with Republicans that Trump hasn’t enslaved, or by Democrats. Then, and only then, will America regain the bipartisan cooperation  that has solved its toughest issues for centuries.

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The post TRUMP’S ATTACKS ON VENEZUELA ARE BASED ON A LIE  OR A DELUSION. THE DEA DOESN’T MENTION VENEZUELA AS A DRUG TRAFFICKER first appeared on Inside The Political Chaos.