The fallout is likely to  upend the entire region, produce significant civilian casualties, cause major losses to the U.S. military and our allies in the region, result in major economic disruption in the United States and throughout the world, and leave the region destabilized for years to come.

The attack is also unlikely to lead to regime change. That and denuclearization of Iran are Trump’s stated missions. Regime change failed before – even backfired. Like Trump’s mission in Iran, the invasion of Iraq was aimed at regime change. We killed their leader and triggered a power vacuum, a brutal, decade-long civil war, regional instability a “dysfunctional kleptocracy,” and increased hatred towards America. 

Worse, the attack heightens the risk of a nuclear event, either by intention or mistake. A nuclear attack could originate right here at home with a President who wanted to nuke North Korea in the last month of his first administration. Fortunately, General Mark Milley was there to stop him. There’s no Milley now, only an alcoholic, unqualified Fox News co-host shocking confirmed by Republican Senators.

A nuclear disaster could also come in the form of Iran’s final retaliation. Most Western observers view Iran’s conduct through the lens of protecting their national interest, but its priorities are more consistent with the Mahdist religious doctrine,  which dictates that military might is central to its doctrines, and many jurists maintain that the deployment of nuclear weapons is permissibleas a last resort.

An unintended nuclear launch has always been more likely than an intentional one. Of the 24 close calls where nuclear war was narrowly avoided, only the Cuban missile crisis involved one nuclear power threatening another. The other incidents often resulted from faulty technology, misinterpreted data, human error during the Cold War and beyond, the 1983 Soviet false alarm, and the 1983 Nato military exercises. Eight of the closest calls stand out as among the most provocative of a  launch in the in the Middle East.

Iran still has lethal military power. Since last June, it has moved to rebuild its ballistic missile arsenal at what an Israeli military assessment described as “a rapid pace.” It can fire hundreds of missiles at U.S. bases and other facilities and awaken its regional network of partners and proxies, namely Hamas, Hezbollah, and Palestinian who share Iran’s animosity toward Israel the United States and oppose the Jewish state’s existence. Support from Tehran has also enabled Yemen’s rebel Houthis to fire missiles at Israel and attack its commercial ships in the Red Sea — actions the Houthis called a show of solidarity with Hamas. 

Iran has sent missiles and drones to attack U.S. and UK facilities in Qatar,the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, Jordan, Iraq and Cyprus, raising the danger of bombing nuclear power plants, reactors and fuel storage facilities in many of those countries.

Each of the countries under attack indicated high levels of preparedness to retaliate for the actions of Iran.

Iran has many ways it could respond to Trump’s attack, including cyber operations. Between 2012 and 2014, Iran targeted U.S. financial institutions, Saudi Aramco oil, and the Las Vegas Sands Corporation. It could also to attack critical infrastructure. 

Intelligence assessments indicate that Iran poses a threat in the U.S. through networks believed to be operating as sleeper cells.

If hostilities continue to escalate, Trump’s war could plunge the global economy into an inflationary crisis led by the price of oil. The conflict has disrupted shipping, leaving at least five tankers damaged and around 150 ships stranded around theStrait of Hormuz. Marine insurers are cancelling war risk coverage for vessels and oil shipping rates are set to surge further.

Trump’s reasons for the attack conflict with Marco Rubio’s and are contradicted by the facts, raising suspicions as to Trump’s motives. Heightening those suspicions, just days before Trump bombed Iran, his FBI Director, Kash Patel, fired the counterintelligence unit tasked with monitoring threats from Iran and its proxies, hobbling the United States ability to detect and subvert retaliatory actions against the United States, raising suspicions as to Trump’s motives.

Truth is who the hell knows why Trump bombed Iran? His denuclearization motive is contradicted by his claim that his attacks last summer obliterated Iran’s nuclear weapons capacity, a claim he repeated during his recent State of the Union address. Regime change is fruitless – witness Iraq. He also bizarrely accused Iran of interfering in 2020, 2024 elections to try to defeat him.

Was it to give the Republican party an edge in the midterms? Or to create a state of emergency in an attempt to delay them? Or to rev up his base? You decide. 

The post THE PRICE OF CONTEMPT FOR THE CONSTITUTION first appeared on Inside The Political Chaos.

Many of Trump’s decisions are triggered by anger unrelated to the issue at hand or by revenge against those who he believes mistreated. Neither has anything to do with the issue at hand.

It took the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley, to prevent  Trump from misusing the country’s nuclear arsenal in the last month of his presidency, presumingly out of anger at losing the presidential election and not in reaction to a perceived threat. Milley received intelligence that China was worried about an attack. To avoid a crisis, he called the head of China’s military to assure him there was no such plan. Trump’s anger can flare up at anything, and there will be no Milley there to stop him next time. Only the sex-offending, alcoholic, unqualified Fox News co-host.

He sprung his 2017 tariffs on our allies out of outrage over Hope Hicks’ testimony regarding Russia’s election interference and the treatment of his son-in-law by his chief of staff. He gave no vetted explanations for the tariffs and had no plan to alert foreign trade partners or Congress. No one at the State, Treasury or Defense Departments were notified about the tariffs ahead of the announcement.

Trump was enraged at Barak Obama for mocking him at the 2011 White House Correspondents’ dinner. He sought revenge by trying to undo all Obama had accomplished, no matter how much the country would suffer. 

He’s been on a mission to overturn Obamacare for years, not because it wasn’t good for Americans, but out of revenge. It would have lost 23.1 million Americans their health insurance and no one would be covered for preexisting conditions. Because he didn’t have the votes, he sabotaged it by cancelling a provision that lowered premiums and halved its enrollment period, and more than 2 million people including 700 children lost their insurance – done purely for revenge against Obama. 

He exited the Transpacific Partnership (TPP), an agreement Obama negotiated with eleven Pacific rim countries that excluded China. It would have eliminated 18,000 tariffs on American exports and established stronger labor standards and environmental protections that would have put state-owned enterprises on a level playing field with U.S. businesses. After Trump pulled out, China stepped in and took our place. The result: Trump gifted one-third of global trade to China. 

Trump’s obsession with revenge is ongoing. He’s had his Justice Department launch vindictive, spurious and unsuccessful prosecutions and investigations of at least ten respected and devoted public officials who served America well. His motive of retribution is why no career or appointed prosecutor had ever agreed to do his bidding. 

The energy, fury and government resources Trump devotes to his retribution and their irrelevance to what’s best for America tragically misguide his decisions. His danger is unprecedented.  Tragically, his subjugated Republicans in Congress tolerate and enable him.  

The post TRUMP’S DECISIONS ARE TRIGGERED BY ANGER UNRELATED TO THE ISSUE AT HAND. THAT MAKES HIM A NUCLEAR RISK. first appeared on Inside The Political Chaos.