Biden’s Credibility Problem with Biden Inflation

President Biden has a credibility problem he needs to solve. Instead of admitting that his American Rescue Plan (ARP) contributed to Biden inflation, he blames inflation on the pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and, most recently, what he called the Republican “ultra-MAGA agenda.” But voters aren’t buying it.: 64 percent of them including 46 percent of Democrats blame the President for the increased costs they experience every day.

ARP’s Impact on Biden Inflation

ARP pumped $1.9 trillion into the economy that boosted consumer spending and fueled inflation. Distributions were based on 2019 tax returns, so many who were unaffected by COVID received money to spend unrelated to pandemic losses.

Comparing Past Economic Relief Bills and Biden Inflation

Only after taking responsibility for his role in inflation will voters believe Biden when he identifies the causes that aren’t his fault. And there are plenty of those.

For example, Donald Trump’s Cares Act, the largest economic relief bill in U.S. history, dumped $2.2 trillion into the economy. Distributions were based on 2018 and 2019 returns — so, like ARP, checks went to many who didn’t suffer economic losses from COVID.

Global and Domestic Factors Contributing to Biden Inflation

Export curbs imposed by five countries were another cause of inflation, driving food prices up 30 percent from 2021 to 2022. Gas prices surged over last year as oil and gas demand outpaced production and consumers emerged from the pandemic to drive and fly more.

Labor Shortage and Biden Inflation Dynamics

The U.S. labor shortage has also contributed to inflation because it forces businesses to increase wages to attract and keep employees. The shortage has been aggravated by the lowest migration levels in decades. Labor force participation rates fell precipitously in 2020 from 63.4 percent to 60.2 percent and have yet to recover fully — they’re still circling 40-year lows. Meanwhile net migration to the United States dropped significantly due to Trump administration policies. 

Historical Price Surge Before Biden’s Presidency and Inflation

Household goods and food prices surged to their highest levels in a decade before Biden even took office.

Biden’s Economic Achievements Amid Biden Inflation

Clearly, such things are not Biden’s fault. But accepting responsibility for the inflationary pressures he did cause will give him the credibility and the pulpit to explain the economic good they did. For example, although ARP contributed to inflation, it also reduced overall poverty by 45 percent and child poverty by 56 percent in the US in 2021.

Employment and Economic Growth Under Biden and Inflation

When Biden took office the unemployment rate was 6.4 percent. By early May it fell to 3.6 percent, its lowest in 52 years. Unemployment is at record lows in 17 states. In May, the economy added 390,000 jobs and state unemployment benefits fell to their lowest since 1969.

 Impact of Immigration Policy on Perception of Biden Inflation

More than 10 percent of blue-collar workers have moved up to tech jobs and higher wages as companies waive the need for a college degree and train new hires — a talent upgrade not seen since the preparation for World War II.

Immigration Facts vs. Anti-Immigration Rhetoric and Biden Inflation

Taking some responsibility for inflation would also help Biden counter partisan attacks on his immigration policies. House Republicans frightened voters with accusations that immigrants crossing our southern border are criminals, sex offenders and rapists.

 Immigration and Biden Inflation: Law-Abiding Immigrants vs. Native-Born Americans

But the fact is, immigrants are more law-abiding than native-born Americans. In Texas, which has America’s second highest immigrant population, crime by illegal immigrants is 45 percent below that of native-born Americans. Crime by legal immigrants in Texas is 62 percent below that of native-born Americans. Nationally, legal immigrants are 74 percent less likely to be incarcerated than native-born Americans. For illegal immigrants the number is 41 percent.

Title 42 Controversy and Biden Inflation: Trump’s Claims vs. Reality

Republicans also criticize Biden’s plan to lift Title 42, which empowers federal health authorities to stop migrants from entering the country when necessary to prevent the spread of disease. Trump used it to block hundreds of thousands of migrants from entering from Mexico, claiming that “tremendous infectious disease is pouring across the border.”

Biden Inflation and Misconceptions About COVID-Infected Migrants

But epidemiologists, physicians and public health experts have debunked Trump’s claim as scientifically baseless and politically motivated, intended to block asylum seekers and return them to dangerous conditions. Their concerns were justified. Over 8,700 of these migrants were kidnapped, raped, or attacked after being returned to their countries of origin.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis accused Biden of letting COVID-infected migrants pour over our southern border by the hundreds of thousands — when Florida’s COVID surge was due to the state’s low vaccination rates.

Nonetheless, anti-immigration rhetoric has misled voters: 45 percent of them, including just 22 percent of Republicans, believe immigrants “help the country.” This is a misconception Democrats need to correct. In general, immigrants are a highly entrepreneurial group. They are 80 percent more likely to start businesses than native-born Americans, and they launch new companies at twice the rate. In fact, immigration boosts economic growth, increases job opportunities and wages for native-born Americans, and expands the middle class. 

Trump claimed immigrants “compete … against … American workers” and that cutting back legal immigration would “boost wages and … open jobs … to American workers.” Yet, 14 leading economists found immigration has little or no negative effects on overall wages or hiring of native-born workers. Most Americans agree: 77 percent say undocumented immigrants mostly fill jobs U.S. citizens don’t want. There were 11.4 million job openings through May, rivaling the record job opportunity in 2000.

Biden has many economic achievements to tout. But they aren’t resonating with voters because he hasn’t owned his results. If, however, he takes a measure of responsibility for inflation instead of deflecting it, he could gain enough credibility to shift the spotlight onto the remarkable strengths he’s created for the economy.

The post If Biden owned his contribution to inflation, he’d have credibility on his achievements first appeared on Inside The Political Chaos.

The Need for Pro-immigration Policy in the U.S.

Republican Attorneys General have been relentless in trying to block President Biden from allowing immigrants to remain in the U.S. — but the country needs more immigrants to ease its labor shortage, slow wage inflation, increase economic growth, and create more jobs.

How Pro-immigration Policy Can Boost Economic Growth

Even if it passed, the Farm Workforce Modernization Act currently stuck the Senate wouldn’t admit more working-age immigrants. The Biden administration should adopt new policies that do. Not only would it be good for the economy, it could also engender voter support and help preserve Democratic majorities in Congress.

The Impact of Trump’s Policies on Immigration Benefits

Biden’s current “fair and humane” approach to immigration is not resonating with voters. Democrats are being excoriated by Republicans for being too progressive and by their own party for not being progressive enough.

Voter opposition to Biden’s plan to lift Title 42, which empowers the administration to block immigrants from entering the U.S. to prevent the spread of disease, reflects strong voter resistance to admitting more immigrants. 

Hostile immigration policies and false rhetoric during the Trump administration effectively stifled immigration, which had already been falling since 1995. In 2019, even before the pandemic hit, aggressive enforcement brought immigration from Mexico to a halt. The result was zero growth in working-age immigrants, down from an average of 660,000 in the preceding years.

Why Immigration Benefits Are Crucial for Labor Shortages

The Biden administration needs to debunk baseless denigration of immigrants to get voter support for a more pro-immigration policy. In March of 2020, Trump stopped hundreds of thousands of migrants from entering from Mexico by falsely claiming that “tremendous infectious disease is pouring across the border.” Trump’s allegation that immigrants are “criminals” was a lie. In fact, the incidence of crime among immigrants is substantially below that of native-born Americans.

And — contrary to another Trump claim — immigrants don’t steal American jobs. In fact, they create more jobs than they take.

The Role of Pro-immigration Policy in Supporting Healthcare

The Trump administration took over 400 executive actions to reduce immigration. Those actions, combined with his denigration of immigrants, resulted in the lowest inflow of immigrants from Mexico (around 200,000) on record since 1960. In the previous decade, about 1 million immigrants a year came to the U.S. Under Trump’s presidency, that number dropped to around 250,000. By the end of 2021, the net immigration to the U.S. hit its lowest level in decades.

Immigrants respond more aggressively to labor demand than low-skilled native-born Americans, so immigration helps ease labor shortages. Studies show that U.S. cities with higher populations of Mexican-born immigrants suffered 50 percent smaller labor shocks than other metro areas. Low immigration engineered by Trump prevented immigrants from easing the current labor shortage. 

How Immigration Benefits Contribute to Economic Stability

Labor shortages worsened when the economy began to recover from the pandemic in 2021. As the number of jobs rose, employers found it harder to fill them due to the scarcity of immigrants. Sectors that employ the most foreign workers had significantly higher rates of job vacancies in 2021.

Despite rising wages, the number of unfilled jobs in the U.S. remains high. Overall, employers advertised 11.4 million jobs at the end of April, 2022, or nearly two job openings for every unemployed person — the second highest level in 20 years.

But by the end of 2021, there were about 2 million fewer working-age immigrants in the U.S. to fill those openings. About a million of them would have been college-educated and could have taken high-skilled jobs that stimulate innovation, boost productivity and grow the economy. High-skilled jobs also have a multiplier effect, generating up to 2.5 additional jobs in their local economies for each employed high-skilled worker. Immigrants are also three times more likely than U.S-born workers to start their own businesses. Two million fewer immigrants translates into fewer new businesses and more than 200,000 fewer jobs.

Reframing the Immigration Debate: Pro-immigration Policy vs. Republican Claims

In recent decades, immigrants have been responsible for most of the U.S. population growth, which is necessary to keep Medicare and Social Security solvent. 

Cutting immigration has tangible health consequences for seniors. Immigrants supply a large share of the growing demand for healthcare workers for the elderly. One in five nurses and one in four health aides is an immigrant. Think of where we would have been without them when COVID 19 overran our hospitals. Recent research shows that a 10 percent increase in the foreign-born labor force reduces the number of falls among nursing home residents by 35 percent.

Immigrants pay their fair share of taxes, and then some. They send more money to the government than they receive in benefits and pay about 15.4 percent of total government tax revenues, while they represent only 14.8 percent of all U.S. households. 

Democrats have lost the messaging wars to Republicans on nearly every issue. But given the many benefits of accepting more immigrants, one still wonders why they’re losing the messaging war on immigration.

Framing a compelling pro-immigration policy and clear and convincing messaging about its benefits, especially immigration benefits, could enable Democrats to seize the issue from Republicans and convince voters that more immigration, not less, is in their best interest.

The post Why Biden and Democrats should double down on pro-immigration policy first appeared on Inside The Political Chaos.