Many of Trump’s decisions are triggered by anger unrelated to the issue at hand or by revenge against those who he believes mistreated. Neither has anything to do with the issue at hand.

It took the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley, to prevent  Trump from misusing the country’s nuclear arsenal in the last month of his presidency, presumingly out of anger at losing the presidential election and not in reaction to a perceived threat. Milley received intelligence that China was worried about an attack. To avoid a crisis, he called the head of China’s military to assure him there was no such plan. Trump’s anger can flare up at anything, and there will be no Milley there to stop him next time. Only the sex-offending, alcoholic, unqualified Fox News co-host.

He sprung his 2017 tariffs on our allies out of outrage over Hope Hicks’ testimony regarding Russia’s election interference and the treatment of his son-in-law by his chief of staff. He gave no vetted explanations for the tariffs and had no plan to alert foreign trade partners or Congress. No one at the State, Treasury or Defense Departments were notified about the tariffs ahead of the announcement.

Trump was enraged at Barak Obama for mocking him at the 2011 White House Correspondents’ dinner. He sought revenge by trying to undo all Obama had accomplished, no matter how much the country would suffer. 

He’s been on a mission to overturn Obamacare for years, not because it wasn’t good for Americans, but out of revenge. It would have lost 23.1 million Americans their health insurance and no one would be covered for preexisting conditions. Because he didn’t have the votes, he sabotaged it by cancelling a provision that lowered premiums and halved its enrollment period, and more than 2 million people including 700 children lost their insurance – done purely for revenge against Obama. 

He exited the Transpacific Partnership (TPP), an agreement Obama negotiated with eleven Pacific rim countries that excluded China. It would have eliminated 18,000 tariffs on American exports and established stronger labor standards and environmental protections that would have put state-owned enterprises on a level playing field with U.S. businesses. After Trump pulled out, China stepped in and took our place. The result: Trump gifted one-third of global trade to China. 

Trump’s obsession with revenge is ongoing. He’s had his Justice Department launch vindictive, spurious and unsuccessful prosecutions and investigations of at least ten respected and devoted public officials who served America well. His motive of retribution is why no career or appointed prosecutor had ever agreed to do his bidding. 

The energy, fury and government resources Trump devotes to his retribution and their irrelevance to what’s best for America tragically misguide his decisions. His danger is unprecedented.  Tragically, his subjugated Republicans in Congress tolerate and enable him.  

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The trade war is here, according to a leading credit rating agency. It now resembles a street fight that risks a recession, which Donald Trump could mismanage Trump tariffs recession and potentially even a depression.

Tariff Escalation: Trump’s Latest Moves

Trump’s new tariffs on $200 million of Chinese goods took effect this week. China retaliated with $60 billion on US imports, and Donald Trump threatened to punch back with tariffs on Chinese goods worth four times as much. China called Trump a bully and released a white paper accusing him of breaking 40 years of norms and threatening global economic stability.

The exchange follows Trump’s threat of $267 billion tariffs and warning that he’s prepared to tax all Chinese imports, after which China threatened to increase U.S. imports subject to tariffs to $110 billion—or 85 percent of all imports from the U.S. {mosads}

Potential for a Second Depression: Trump Tariffs Recession Scenario

Could all this lead to a second depression?  It’s not so far-fetched. It took both Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama’s intervention to prevent the Great Recession from leading to another depression. Trump would be incapable of responding to a similar crisis.

Comparison with Past Crises: Trump Tariffs Recession Risks

In 2008, Secretary of Treasury Henry Paulson, who led the rescue team, had visions of breadlines. But Bush avoided a total meltdown by convincing an unwilling Congress to pass a $700 billion bank bailout, even in the face of public outrage against Main Street bailing out Wall Street.

Paulson describes Bush as a calm leader. Trump is neither calm nor rational. His steel and aluminum Trump tariffs reportedly were launched out anger at Chief of Staff John Kelley’s downgrade of Jared Kushner’s security clearance, Attorney General Jeff Sessions’s handling of an investigation of a Trump campaign associate, the absence of consensus from his staff on tariffs, and Hope Hicks’ testimony before Congress regarding Russian meddling.

Trade Agreements and Economic Consequences: Trump Tariffs Recession Impact

Unlike Bush, Trump feeds and exploits public outrage over choosing what’s best for America. For example, he whipped up his base by calling the Trans Pacific Trade Partnership “a rape of our country,”  and then abandoned it. We lost trade agreements with nations representing a third of global GDP, and forewent tariff reductions on manufactured, agricultural and technology products and higher labor standards for TPP participants. China quickly filled the vacuum with trade pacts with16 countries that excluded the US. Now Trump wants back in, but it’s too late.

Bush heeded the advice of highly qualified and reputable advisers, including Paulson, Ben Bernanke and Timothy Geithner. Trump, on the other hand, ignored warnings against tariffs from many economists and bipartisan Congressional groups. Instead, he hired fringe economist Peter Navarro and Wilbur Ross as Secretary of Commerce because they were among the very few who agreed with his aggressive – some say reckless – trade tactics.

China’s Retaliation and Economic Impact: Trump Tariffs Recession Concerns

China is “out of bullets” to retaliate with tariffs, says Commerce Secretary Ross, because its exports to the U.S. are four times larger than the U.S. exports to China. What’s China’s next punch? It could block supply chains to industries that make “Made in America” brands, which would exacerbate the disruptions and economic slowdown already resulting from tariffs.

Products such as autos are highly integrated with Chinese supply chains and dependent on their cheaper components. The impact on those industries and their prices would be immeasurable. White House economists worry that such disruptions could weaken America’s ability to mobilize in conflicts, as we did in World War II.

Trump’s Stance and Economic Risks: Trump Tariffs Recession and Beyond

Trump is unlikely to soften his approach and risk the appearance of a personal loss. He’s more likely to become more belligerent and ignore, or be blind to, the risk of a depression. 

Comparative Analysis: 1930s and Today’s Economic Landscape

Clearly, we’re better equipped now than in the 1930s to avoid a depression. In the 2008 recession, we lowered interest rates, back-stopped failing banks and money market funds, increased the money supply and bank capital, bailed out auto companies, gave tax rebates, stemmed mortgage foreclosures and purchased distressed mortgage-related assets. Economists suggest these moves avoided another depression.

Today, deposit insurance prevents runs on banks. The stock market hasn’t crashed. Nor is there the deflation that stifled investment and spending in the 1930s.

Debt and Economic Flexibility: Trump Tariffs Recession Challenges

But the US was a large creditor nation then with the flexibility to borrow and provide liquidity and stimulus. Today, the US debt to GDP ratio is 78 percent and expected to rise to 96 percent by 2020, which would severely limit the flexibility to engineer a recovery. The massive spending and employment of 12 million Americans that attended WWII, which helped end the Great Depression, won’t help today. And if interest rates stay low, the Fed won’t be able to lower them enough to stimulate growth. 

Historical Parallels and Future Uncertainty: Trump Tariffs Recession Impact

There are also similarities between the 1930s and today. Extensive tariffs, which economists believe deepened the Depression, are common to both. There’s no telling whether Trump will double, triple or even quadruple down on tariffs and how countries might retaliate. President Hoover, like Trump, ignored many economists who warned against tariffs.

In 2008, at the start of the Great Recession, The Economist cited free trade as a reason why another depression is remote. It noted that government commitment to free trade and “the patterns of cross-border commerce, with … production spread over so many countries, would be enormously costly to pull apart.” But Donald Trump’s trade tactics risk dismantling the international order that has been a reliable barrier against another depression.

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The Republicans have targeted entitlements for cuts because they are our biggest expense. Yet, the interest our government pays on its debt will surpass entitlements by 2050. That’s because of the ballooning deficits caused by the GOP tax cuts and the need to fund them with more debt, which underscores the critical need for comprehensive tax reform.

 The Economic Risks of Ignoring Tax Reform

Our economy is robust, unemployment is near an all-time low, and wages are up. There was no reason to risk it all with tax cuts. If the Republicans are so worried about the cost of entitlements, they should have also worried about the cost of our debt service. They should have left well enough alone.

The Unavoidable Impact of Higher Deficits and Tax Reform

{mosads}Higher deficits are now unavoidable. Even Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin has acknowledged that growth will not cover the $1.5 trillion of revenue lost from the cuts. The Office of Management and Budget projects that the federal debt will grow close to the size of the U.S. economy within 10 years as a result of GOP tax reform.

Projected Costs of GOP Tax Reform

The cost of the Republican tax cuts, taking into consideration any resulting economic growth, is projected to be $1 trillion by the bi-partisan Joint Committee on Taxation, $1.39 trillion by the Penn Wharton model, and $516 billion by the Tax Foundation. Without growth, those amounts are $1.63 trillion, $1.64 trillion and $1.78 trillion, respectively.

Economic Experts Warn About the Consequences of Tax Reform

New York Fed President William Dudley, a key architect of the U.S. Central Bank’s decade-long response to the financial crisis, says the tax cuts can provide only a modest boost and are expected to “balloon the deficit by $1.5 trillion” over 10 years.

Corporate Responses to Tax Reform: Mergers and Buybacks

The promise of job growth is also shaky. Rather than using the cash windfall from corporate tax cuts to invest and hire, corporations are using it to go on a shopping spree. They are acquiring or merging with other companies and buying back their stock.

The Long-term Effects of Tax Reform on Workers and the Economy

Those strategies won’t help workers or the economy. In fact, mergers and acquisitions generate job loss instead of job growth, since managers fire employees to eliminate overlap in the surviving entity.  Stock buybacks deprive the economy of capital — an important fuel for growth.

Tax Reform and the Rise of CEO Compensation

But mergers and stock buybacks do help CEOs because they drive up earnings per share, enabling CEOs to get paid more. So it’s no surprise that corporations have spent $6.9 trillion of profits on stock buybacks since 2004, or that they spend trillions each year on mergers and acquisitions. It was utterly predictable they’d do it again. In fact, it was predicted it in November.

Historical Perspective: Tax Reform and Economic Growth

History shows no consistent correlation between tax rates and economic growth. We even experience job loss during low tax periods. That increases the risk of recession because no growth or negligible growth will lead to even larger deficits, higher borrowing costs and declining GDP.

Future Economic Projections Under Tax Reform

The CBO projects that interest rates will triple over 10 years. The government will pay $818 billion in interest in 2027, and a total of $5.6 trillion in interest over the next 10 years. Debt service will be the third largest cost in the federal budget by 2026, the second by 2046, and the largest — surpassing entitlements — by 2050. Foreign investors are likely to demand even higher rates on Treasury securities just based on supply and demand.

Tax Reform’s Broader Impact on Interest Rates and Consumer Spending

We will experience higher rates across the board, including on residential mortgages and corporate and consumer borrowing. Rates will be a drag on home buying, housing starts and consumer spending, which is two thirds of the economy. This is bound to lead to a recession, which like the rest of GOP tax reform will hit the middle class the hardest and widen income and wealth inequality in America.

The Uncertain Benefits of Tax Reform and Low Unemployment

The Republicans’ mantra that the tax cuts will lower unemployment much below its present level is unrealistic given how low it is already. But even if they do, as Mr. Dudley warned, the Fed may worry about inflation and have to stymie growth by raising rates.

 The Irony of Tax Reform During Economic Prosperity

Why do the Republicans choose to lower taxes when our economy is robust, unemployment is at near-record lows, fewer Americans are living below the poverty line and wages are increasing? Why would they threaten it all? What happened to the party of fiscal responsibility?

The Political Motivations Behind Tax Reform

Sadly, I think the answer is that the Republicans wanted to keep a campaign promise — especially after failing to repeal the Obamacare — more than they wanted to do what’s right for the country.

The Historical Contrast: Democrats vs. Republicans on Tax Reform

For years, the Republicans have painted the Democrats as the party of profligacy — the party that spends, spends, spends. Indeed, just eight years ago, the Republicans viciously attacked President Barack Obama’s $787 billion economic stimulus plan as irresponsible. But history shows that Republican administrations have consistently been more profligate spenders than Democratic ones.

Now with tax reform positioned to balloon deficits, the GOP’s most consistent criticism of Democrats will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. No matter which party is in control, raising taxes is inevitable.

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Voter Suppression: The Republican Strategy

Of the 25 states that adopted voter restrictions since 2010, 22 are controlled by Republicans, and their laws target Democratic-leaning voters. Voter suppression is Donald Trump’s best — perhaps only — chance of winning in November. Democrats need to gear up to fight it or risk another four years of Trump.

Republican Tactics to Suppress Votes

Although voter suppression measures have been struck down by the courts in some states, Republicans continue to try them in others. Democrats should focus especially on eight battleground states, plus Texas, Minnesota, and Alabama, all of which have voter suppression measures in place.

In the courts as well as on the ground, Democrats will need to fight the many ways Republicans are trying to render votes for Democrats moot, particularly those of people of color. Their tactics include:

• Changing mail-in ballots to substitute Republican candidates for Democratic candidates while “helping” voters fill them out.
• Closing polls in predominantly black or Latino areas.  
• In some cases, prohibiting the use of mail-in ballots by voters under 65, and in others, attempting to prohibit the use of ballot drop boxes.
• Nullifying mail-in ballots received after election day.
• Requiring photo ID to vote at polling places.
• Requiring witnesses, notaries, and photo IDs to vote by absentee ballot.
• Limiting the ways organizers can help voters get to polling places or submit absentee ballots.
• Prohibiting voting by felons who served their time.
• Purging ballots of voter suppression who fail to update their addresses, whose signatures don’t match those on file with state officials, whose votes are cast at other than at their assigned polling places, or who skipped six years of elections.

Combating Voter Suppression: What Democrats Can Do

There are ways to combat these tactics. For example, Trump has tried to engineer delaying the receipt of mail-in ballots and not counting those that arrive after the election. The administration has apparently backed down on this, but we still need to be vigilant and protect voting by mail; 31 states don’t allow ballots received after election day to be counted even if they’re postmarked before then. Democrats should push them to enact laws allowing ballots to be counted as long as they’re postmarked on or before the election. Red states should cooperate. After all, Republicans, like Democrats, want their votes counted.

The Role of the Supreme Court in Republican Tactics

To re-enfranchise voters, Democrats will not only have to fight Republican legislatures and elected and appointed officials; they will also have to fight the U.S. Supreme Court. Chief Justice Roberts has been lauded for keeping the Court from becoming too political by sometimes siding with liberals. Yet he has broken the promise of the 15^th Amendment that the “right … to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any state on account of race, color…” Roberts has been the tiebreaking vote upholding Republican voter suppression efforts in nearly every case that has come before his Court. That includes a decision that thwarted the federal Voting Rights Act. The Court ruled its formula for determining which states must first clear any changes in voting laws with the Department of Justice or a federal district court to ensure they wouldn’t disadvantage minorities was unconstitutional. The decision facilitated purging an estimated 16 million voters between 2014 and 2016.

Justice Roberts and Justice Gorsuch, who has joined Roberts in such decisions since being appointed to the court, were both members of the Republican National Lawyers Association (RNLA) – an organization which reportedly has helped states suppress minority voting for decades. There is currently no code of ethics for Supreme Court Justices to help determine whether they should recuse themselves from cases because of their prior affiliations. The late Rep. Louise Slaughter (D-N.Y.) introduced the Supreme Court Ethics Act several times to change that, and Congress should revive and pass it.

Legislative Actions Against Voter Suppression

Republicans are trying to thwart the core of our democracy: the right to vote. As Barack Obama warned when he eulogized John Lewis, “those in power are doing their darnedest to discourage people from voting.” Democrats must stand up to them to defeat Donald Trump and restore integrity to the White House.

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