Putin wants to force the United States out of NATO and Europe along with their troops, weapons and missiles. Russia will succeed if Trump lets them conquer Ukraine.
Once Russia occupies Ukraine, Putin will use the threat of more invasions and of depriving Europe of key commodities such as gas, oil and grain (from already-conquered Ukraine) as leverage to force a military alliance with NATO that provides Europe with security but expels America from NATO. But don’t worry about Donald Trump though. Putin will reward him lavishly for the surrender.
The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) was once 15 republics and a world-wide superpower. Nearly 130 ethnic groups populated the vast country, which spanned 11 time zones. Now Putin wants it all back.
A Russian victory in Ukraine will embolden Putin to invade NATO members. His first targets are likely to be the Baltic states, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Like Ukraine, they were formerly part of the Soviet Union and are home to many ethnic Russians. A Russian attack on the Baltics could tip of the balance of power firmly in Russia’s direction. It would be inevitable — thinking in the Baltics has changed from “Russia won’t invade” to “when Russia invades.”
If Russia occupies the Baltics and NATO counter-attacks, it could collapse along with all the Western security provided to the region for the last 70 years. So would the collective economic and military strength NATO members currently enjoy over Russia, which would leave a power vacuum enabling Russia to invade Eastern European countries with little resistance.
Americans, support for directly confronting Russia varies depending on which member is attacked. Only 35 percent support using military force to defend Latvia and Croatia. Less than half support a direct military confrontation, including troops, in all other NATO members except Germany, France and Great Britain.
Russians will cheer Putin on for new invasions. His ratings rose to 84 percent during his second war in Chechnya and to 88 percent after he annexed Crimea, which gave birth to the “Crimean consensus” holding that Russians are willing to endure hardship to recreate a Russian-led Eurasian empire.
Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and former Defense Secretary Robert Gates warned, “to avoid confrontation with Russia in the future is to help Ukraine push back the invader now … If this lesson is ignored and Ukraine is defeated, Russia will almost certainly … attack NATO member countries.”
Putin believes America is vulnerable from four years of Trump’s disastrous presidency (facilitated by Putin), alienating its allies with ill-advised tariffs and insults and now, from taking a wrecking ball to America’s government. Unlike America’s voters, Putin knows he’s irrational and psychologically out of control.
Putin also hopes Trump will make good on his threat to pull out of NATO or slacken Americas commitment to it, which would greatly facilitate Russian invasions into Europe. NATO members fear both, so they’ve become resolute in preparing for war.
Russia’s transition to a war economy and long-term plans to rebuild its armed forces have broader aims than just the subjugation of Ukraine. And despite Trump’s claims that Putin “wants peace”, there is no discernible sign that the Kremlin is considering any path other than more military aggression.
Trump’s devotion to and emulation of Putin is troubling. We really don’t know how conciliatory he’ll be in America’s defense of Ukraine. As he said, if NATO members don’t double what they’re paying, he’ll encourage Russia to “do whatever the hell they want.”
Trump’s devotion to Putin can be explained the same way we can explain his admiration of despots like Viktor Orbán, Saddam Hussein, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kim Il Jung with whom he exchanged love letters, and yes, Hitler’s Nazi generals.
But with Putin, you have to add Trump’s financial dependence on the man.
As Donald Trump Jr. said, “Russians make up a … disproportionate cross-section of … our assets,” and “We see a lot of money pouring in from Russia.” Eric Trump told a journalist, “We don’t rely on American banks; we have all the funding we need out of Russia.”
Trump has many business aspirations in Russia that Putin can make or break. Trump met with the Soviet ambassador about building a luxury hotel and a Trump International complex in Moscow. At the 2008 Russian Real Estate Summit, Trump touted plans for condos and hotels in Moscow, St. Petersburg and Sochi. In 2011, he licensed his name to an aborted Azerbaijan hotel for $1 million and promoted a Trump Tower in Kazakhstan. Even as he campaigned for the Republican nomination, Trump signed a letter of intent to build Trump Tower in Moscow.
Unexplainably, voters put America’s fate in the hands of the only elected official that “trusts Putin more than … U.S. intelligence,” idolizes and flatters him as “genius” and “very savvy.” Trump never criticizes America’s number one enemy, envies his wealth and emulates how he runs Russia as his own private company.”
So how far would Trump’s allegiance to Putin go? Three Russian warships including a nuclear-powered submarine docked in Havana, 90 miles from our mainland, last July for the second time as part of planned military exercises. Their arrival conjured up memories of the1962 Missile crisis when Russia had installed nuclear missiles in striking distance of the United States. Can it happen again, and what would Trump do?
Putin would love to reverse the conciliation to the United States Russia suffered during the Cuban missile crisis, and Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that he could “neither confirm nor exclude” the deployment of Russian troops and missiles to Cuba and Venezuela.
How would Trump respond to his Russian idol’s threat then?
Trump’s incompetence, his sycophantic enablers, his ill- advised and compulsive decisions, his failure to weigh consequences, and his singular focus on himself all work against rational and effective decisions. Sadly, there’s more reason to worry than to hope, Alexander Hamilton worried while drafting the Constitution that “a “mob of uninformed voters would elect a “tyrant” who would steer the country astray and command dangerous amounts of power with dangerous results. He was prescient.
